Tesla, TSLA & The Investment World: The 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Tesla, TSLA & The Investment World: The 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Separate names with a comma. SEC was based on cars, nobody has even thought about the solar side of Tesla, but now they will? Strictly speaking, Ford had a five or six billion dollar loan from the same program that Tesla borrowed from. Ford is still making payments (I believe it was for over 27 years). That's what kept them afloat because the EV that this money produced couldn't possibly have cost that much to develop. And if we really want to be persnickety you can easily make the argument that Ford owes it's current success to massive federal spending during WWII. I think Ford is a strong contender to be first to be completely wiped out by Tesla. Over 100% of Ford's valuation is the F-150. Autos have a lot of operating leverage so only a relatively small drop in revenues can quickly kill margins. A strong Pickup release from Tesla could very conceivably bankrupt Ford within 12 months of mass production.

I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year? Is anywhere from zero to 1 car. Model 3s In inventory appear equally scarce. If I had the money, I'd upgrade to performance. I already got the full tax credit, maybe in a few years anyway. But then there's the truck. Sure wouldn't want to own a Hybrid. Been saying that since they came out - what a maintenance nightmare! Then I read this next quote and just started laughing out loud! The batteries in modern hybrids are designed to last for at least 100,000 miles. Some might even make it to 150,000 or more. If you're the original owner of a hybrid vehicle, chances are you won't ever have to replace the battery pack because it just wears out. Good news, they won't need a new battery - just junk the car when the battery dies.

Hybrids are doomed it seems. Price is just one reason. All those people wanting a new Tesla, demand will be crazy soon. I am going to laugh if we are in the 260鈥檚 next week. I'm already laughing. Solidly in the money on TSLA and lots of room to run. Oh hey, I just found one from the future. I would like to see at least one of these legacy automakers get nimble enough to survive the transition. How exactly is electric F-150 different from GM Bolt ? 23B loan just before the meltdown. CEO Mulally said as much. I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year? Tesla doesn't have to sell a million trucks/year to put F out of business.

Tesla has already put a serious dent in sales of Ford's last remaining passenger vehicle, the Mustang. 4000 by mid-December. Is that a forecast? How about something I have more influence over, "Hey Lycanthrope, I hear you wife saying you drink too much beer?", "Yeah, I'm hoping to cut down". That's an even bigger nope. We all seem to be using different definitions. Equipment: Stamping presses, welding robots, paint shop, conveyors, forklifts, lifting systems, assembly robots. Stuff used to make the cars, but not specific to any particular model. Tooling: Stamping dies, certain jigs and other items specific to a particular model. Precision body dies dominate auto tooling cost. Tesla depreciates Building and Equipment over a fixed number of years, but depreciates tooling on "units of production" basis. Expected life is a million units for Model 3 tooling and 325k units for Model S/X tooling. S/X tooling was originally 250k units. That's based on how many they expected to build before a body design refresh dictated new tooling, i.e. it was an economic life vs. When they saw they could stick with the same body style past 250k units they changed the depreciation schedule.