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White House, California meet on vehicle emissions

California's air chief Mary Nichols told Reuters last month that she sees a “window” to make a deal this fall. Photo credit: Bloomberg

WASHINGTON -- Trump administration officials and California clean air regulators emerged from a meeting on Wednesday saying they would keep meeting to work toward resolving their sharp conflict over vehicle emissions and shared the goal of a single national standard.

The two sides discussed Trump's Safer and Affordable Fuel Efficient Vehicles rule that backs freezing national vehicle emissions standards at 2020 levels through 2026, and revokes California's power to set state emissions rules. The California Air Resources Board has proposed maintaining strict Obama-era rules mandating rising fuel efficiency requirements annually through 2025.

The officials said in a statement they agreed to hold future meetings aimed at achieving national fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards.

Automakers have urged California and the administration to reach agreement, rather than face years of uncertainty. Automakers want looser emissions standards because consumers now favor bigger cars that use more fuel.

And automakers are concerned that they will not be able to recover the cost of the fuel saving and emissions control technology required to meet the Obama administration’s 2025 targets.

California air regulators said after the White House proposal was published that they plan to keep tightening state vehicle emissions rules despite a Trump administration proposal at the beginning of August. California’s air chief Mary Nichols told Reuters last month that she sees a “window” to make a deal this fall.

California’s decision is nationally significant because the state is the largest U.S. auto market. Also, a dozen states and the District of Columbia have adopted California’s emissions rules, accounting for more than a third of all U.S. vehicle sales.

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A sizzling summer for rising used vehicle prices

As spring turned to summer, used-car prices began to heat up. Without a big shock like last year's hurricanes, it is extremely rare for used cars to appreciate like this during summer. Yet, our weekly price index shows the most-sold vintage of vehicles at Manheim — 3-year-old vehicles — are worth 2 percent more than they were just eight weeks ago.

Think about this: A depreciating asset is worth 2 percent more than eight weeks ago, when normally it would have lost about 1 percent of value.

The Manheim Index set a record in July. The index is based on all vehicles sold at Manheim and is the best indicator of what dealers are paying for used vehicles.

The record bested the one set in October at the peak of the replacement demand frenzy after hurricanes Harvey and Irma. This time, no natural disaster has wiped out supply and created replacement demand.

Generally, prices increase when a demand-supply imbalance occurs. Even though higher prices should encourage an increase in wholesale supply, at this time of year and at this point in the auto cycle, wholesale supply cannot increase enough to accommodate. Given that the situation is fundamentally caused by a surge in demand, higher prices make matters worse and further reduce wholesale supplies.

Demand-supply imbalance

Higher prices lead to a higher probability that leased vehicles at maturity are worth more than their contract value. The consumer and/or dealer is more likely to buy the vehicle, resulting in fewer off-lease vehicles going to auction.

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Lack of inventory against strong demand reinforces the perception that the market has an inventory problem. Scarcity encourages buyers to act faster and accept higher prices, extending the demand-supply imbalance.

Dealers are not buying irrationally. Retail demand is causing this situation. We estimate used-vehicle sales increased 3 percent year over year in July, with one fewer selling day. The annualized pace of used-vehicle sales is up 1 percent over last year to 39.5 million, a new peak for this expansion period. We estimate the July used SAAR at 39.2 million, the strongest July in six years.

The robust demand for used cars is partly because of a strong economy, with mounting affordability challenges for the consumer favoring growth in used-vehicle sales at the expense of new. But that demand driver isn't new. These conditions have supported strong used-vehicle prices for more than a year.

Only one event happened close to when used-car prices started to defy gravity: President Donald Trump's announcement of a proposed 25 percent tariff on imported vehicles and parts.

Buy now

The used-vehicle market is adjusting for the possibility of higher prices. These higher prices and the related declining supply create a psychological feedback loop for consumers and dealers, encouraging buying now with the expectation that prices may be higher later.

The demand-supply imbalance is not limited to used. We see evidence of new-vehicle price strength along with declining discounts and stagnant incentives. This is an odd time of year to see less discounting, as usually the model year changeover brings bigger incentives and more discounting to move the older models. But stronger retail demand against limited supply enables manufacturers to trim incentives and discounts.

On the used side, peak wholesale volumes are timed for spring, not summer. Rental car companies are in peak summer usage months, not an ideal time to sell off fleet. Fleet companies are likely now seeing less attractive pricing given the stronger retail demand. The most flexible source of wholesale supply comes from finance companies offering lease pull-ahead programs.

This spring, most of the strength in used-car prices was in affordable segments — compact and midsize cars. The more affordable segments still see the strongest performance, but the summer surge is a tide lifting nearly all boats. Across segments, only sports cars have not had an increase in their 3-year-old weekly price index over the last eight weeks.

This trend can't last long, but it may persist through summer and early fall until the tariff threat is resolved and/or negative economic news occurs. Even in the absence of a change in politics or the economy, price increases cannot go on forever as eventually the market will reach a breaking point for payment affordability.

While used retail sales will peak soon, we expect they will plateau at the peak and not decline for at least a year. That means demand should be consistent once the sense of urgency calms down. Then supply flows will have a greater impact on pricing. Supply will likely increase marginally leading to faster depreciation.

When the market reaches the point that supply is more in balance, the faster depreciation should boost sales volumes, not hurt them.

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Why no auto executive will temper autonomous vehicle expectations

Even while his company tested a self-driving vehicle at the 2017 CAR Management Briefing Seminars, Magna CEO Don Walker tempered expectations about the technology. “A full autonomous vehicle is a long way off for lots of reasons," he said. Photo credit: GREG HORVATH

I've been hoping this summer that someone somewhere at an automaker or supplier would be brave enough to say that autonomous vehicles -- which still have no path to profitability and still have no clear customer base clamouring for them -- aren't going to happen anytime soon.

I don't recall anyone saying it last week at the CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Traverse City, Mich. I haven't heard it recently on the record from auto company executives and suppliers, both of whom are heavily invested in trying to bring about self-driving vehicles, even if they harbor personal doubts. And some do.

After interviews, when the tape recorder is off and there is time for off-the-record chitchat, several executives have expressed doubts on the technology, the timing, the readiness of the infrastructure or consumer willingness to pay for the technology as new-vehicle prices are soaring. Last month, according to Kelley Blue Book, the average new light vehicle in the U.S. sold for US$35,359.

But automakers and suppliers are in a tough spot.

If Wall Street analysts perceive that a company is falling behind competitors, shares will get hammered. A year ago at the CAR conference, Magna CEO Don Walker, in unusually candid remarks for a senior executive, offered some insight into what industry executives say on the record and what they really think about self-driving vehicles.

He said: "Quite frankly, auto companies can't tell publicly what they really believe. They know what's going to happen, but they have to say what is going to be popular to be perceived as a progressive company. ... We've got a lot of feedback from many of the car companies, and they actually believe this to be right."

“A full autonomous vehicle is a long way off for lots of reasons," he added.?

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But the big money being spent trying to make a vehicle drive itself with 100 percent safety 100 percent of the time is -- in my view -- starting to damage some car companies' ability to compete.

Take Ford, for example. The F-series truck is Ford's perennial cash cow and the vehicle that pretty much pays all the big bills. If something happened -- an earthquake that disrupts supply, a huge spike in material costs -- and F-series margins disappeared, Ford would be in trouble fast. A fire in May at a supplier cost Ford eight days of production of the F series, a vehicle that is expected to bring in around US$44 billion in revenue this year.

Ford plans to invest US$4 billion in self-driving vehicles by 2023. But nowhere in Ford's announcement of that big number can I find when it expects to make a profit from the technology.

One lesson that never seems to resonate is that full-line automakers need a balanced portfolio of vehicles with an array of powertrains. And like a financial portfolio, some of those investments will make money and some won't. But to hedge your bets, you keep at least a few of the unprofitable ones around -- cars, for instance -- because things can change in a minute in the auto industry. Remember US$4 a gallon gasoline a decade ago? Or about $1.40 a litre in Canada at the time.

I am not saying automakers shouldn't spend money on self-driving technology. But autonomous vehicles should be about 10th on their priority lists. We live in a fast-changing world of tightening emissions regulations, burgeoning tariffs, a market shifting rapidly away from traditional cars, financial analysts with too much influence and other pressing issues.

There also needs to be more global collaboration among automakers, suppliers, regulators and everyone else with skin in the game to develop the key technologies to ensure that every vehicle on the road has the same basic building blocks. That would cut down on redundant engineering, improve safety, reduce costs, speed development and keep engineers where they are needed most: developing products that pay the bills today.

Ultimately, the industry needs to lower expectations. There still are too many unknowns about the practical application of self-driving vehicles. We don't even have national legislation governing the use of these vehicles in the U.S.

If we are going to be honest about self-driving cars, let's agree the best shot these vehicles have for even limited use in the next 15 years will be in geofenced areas, universities, hospital campuses, military bases and amusement park parking lots -- places where traffic is controlled, consistent and predicable.

This is one race where finishing first just means you are going to lose more money faster.

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Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group Sues Rick Case Automotive

A major provider of dealership management software programs and services is suing Rick Case Automotive Group, of Sunrise, Fla., for allegedly breaching its licensing agreement and misappropriating trade secrets.

Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group, which provides software and support services to dealerships, also accuses the dealership group, a number of its dealerships in Florida, Ohio and Georgia, and co-owner Rita Case of unjust enrichment and wrongfully refusing to return about 150 proprietary software programs after failing to pay monthly licensing fees for the past year and a half.

"These important and very profitable programs, clearly licensed under a written license agreement, have been appropriated," said the software provider's lawyer, Ian Kukoff, of Miami. "The Rick Case dealerships have refused to pay licensing fees and locked my clients out of their own programs."

"We believe those damages are in the millions of dollars," Kukoff said.

However, defense lawyer Aaron Horowitz, of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., said, "My clients deny the allegations of IVSG's complaint, and we will be defending the case vigorously." The Rick Case defendants have not yet filed their answer to the complaint.

Unpaid balance

Rick Case Automotive Group has 17 dealerships and ranks No. 39 on Automotive News' list of the top 150 dealership groups based in the U.S., with retail sales of 21,913 new vehicles in 2017.

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Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group partners with CDK Global, one of the two primary providers of dealership management systems in the U.S. Reynolds and Reynolds Co. is its major competitor.

According to the suit, filed June 11 in Broward County, Fla., Circuit Court, the Rick Case dealerships were licensed to use Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group programs for sales, service, accounting, parts and payroll management. From late 2010 until 2016, the dealership group and its stores accessed more than 1,395 individual modules "without incident, complaint or challenge" to Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group's ownership of the programs, the suit said.

In 2016, Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group upgraded the platform at the dealership group's request at a charge of $37,400, with a $16,000 discount conditioned on a new two-year minimum license agreement.

The dealership group paid the discounted amount, $21,400, but has refused to sign the new agreement or pay the $16,000 balance, the suit contends. The dealership group stopped making monthly license payments in February 2017 and has not complied with Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group's demand to remove the programs from its CDK dealership management system platform, it claims.

'Removed and purged'

According to the suit, Rita Case claimed that the group had paid a software engineer to "redevelop identical programs with the same functionality of the IVSG programs."

But Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group spokesman Greg Euston said, "There is no evidence to support that claim and, regardless, that sort of duplication would also be a breach of the licensing agreement."

The suit seeks compensatory and punitive damages, as well a court order requiring Integrated Vehicle Solutions Group's programs to be "removed and purged."

Kukoff said, "One of the things so puzzling to us is the actions taken by the Rick Case dealerships are indefensible — there doesn't seem to a rational basis for them."

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